The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc (600025.SS) is 8.64 CNY. With the latest stock price at 9.45 CNY, the upside of Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc based on DCF is -8.6%.

Is 600025.SS a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 9.45 CNY and our DCF valuation, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc (600025.SS) is a sell. Selling 600025.SS stocks now will result in a potential gain of 8.6%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	6.2% - 7.5%	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	1.0% - 3.0%	2.0%
Fair Price	5.2 - 15.52	8.64
Upside	-44.9% - 64.2%	-8.6%

9.45 CNY

Stock Price

8.64 CNY

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

600025.SS DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Projections

	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028	12-2029

Revenue	24,882	27,051	29,216	30,355	31,120	32,852
% Growth	6%	9%	8%	4%	3%	6%

Cost of goods sold	(11,068)	(12,033)	(12,997)	(13,503)	(13,843)	(14,614)
% of Revenue	44%	44%	44%	44%	44%	44%

Selling, G&A expenses	(889)	(966)	(1,043)	(1,084)	(1,111)	(1,173)
% of Revenue	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%

Research & Development	(151)	(164)	(177)	(184)	(188)	(199)
% of Revenue	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%

Net interest & other expenses	(2,409)	(2,619)	(2,829)	(2,939)	(3,013)	(3,181)
% of Revenue	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%	10%

Tax expense	(1,453)	(1,408)	(1,520)	(1,580)	(1,619)	(1,710)
Tax rate	14%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%

Net profit	8,912	9,861	10,650	11,065	11,344	11,976
% Margin	36%	36%	36%	36%	36%	36%