As of 2025-07-12, the Fair Value of Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA (PKN.WA) is 123.78 PLN. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 86.96 PLN, the upside of Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA is 42.3%.

Is PKN.WA a good investment?

With the market price of 86.96 PLN and our fair value calculation, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA (PKN.WA) is a good investment. Investing in PKN.WA stocks now will result in a potential gain of 42.3%.

86.96 PLN

Stock Price

123.78 PLN

Fair Price

FAIR VALUE CALCULATION

PKN.WA Fair Value

Peter Lynch's formula is:

PKN.WA Fair Value

= Earnings Growth Rate x TTM EPS

PKN.WA Fair Value

= 25 x 4.95

PKN.WA Fair Value

= 123.78

The earnings growth rate we use in the formula is the average growth rate of net income/earnings over the last 5 years. If the average growth rate is smaller than 5%, we set it to 5%. If it is larger than 25%, we set it to 25%. If the TTM EPS is negative, Peter Lynch Fair Value's result can be unreliable.

	Historical Earnings

	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	12-2024	5Y Avg
Net income	2,755	11,122	39,677	20,922	1,469	15,189
YoY growth	-35.9%	303.7%	256.7%	-47.3%	-93%	76.9%

PKN.WA Fair Value - Peers Benchmarking

	Market Cap (mil)	EPS	Fair Value	Upside
a
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA	100,955	5	123.78	42.3%
OMV AG	15,388	3.4	30.46	-35.2%
Galp Energia SGPS SA	11,440	2.4	60.11	265.4%
MOL Magyar Olajes Gazipari Nyrt	1,913,280	606.6	15,165.88	400.5%
Grupa Lotos SA	14,605	22	550.87	597.3%
Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries SA	2,752	1.6	40.02	61.1%
Hellenic Petroleum SA	2,353	-0.4	-1.78	-123.1%
Esso Societe Anonyme Francaise SA	1,985	6.1	30.32	-73.2%
Saras SpA	1,519	0.3	7.9	394.3%
CropEnergies AG	1,005	0.8	18.82	63.4%
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS	31,474	6.1	30.71	-84%

PKN.WA Fair Value - Key Data

Market Cap (mil)	100,955
P/E	17.6x
Forward P/E	10.9x

EPS	4.95
Avg earnings growth rate	76.9%
TTM earnings	5,748

PKN.WA Fair Value - Formula's Origin

Peter Lynch is one of the most legendary investors/fund managers of all time. His philosophy for stock investing is very simple and straightforward: he invests in stocks that are undervalued, meaning its P/E is less than or equal to its earnings growth rate. He believes that if a stock is trading at its fair value, the PEG ratio, which was also invented by him, should be 1.

Therefore, his formula to determine a company's fair value is:

Peter Lynch Fair Value = Earnings Growth Rate * EPS * PEG

PEG is set to 1 so we can ignore it in the calculation. Based on the formula, if the earnings growth rate of a company is 15%, Peter Lynch is willing to buy its share up to P/E = 15.