The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shopify Inc (SHOP) is 42.74 USD. With the latest stock price at 114.32 USD, the upside of Shopify Inc based on DCF is -62.6%.

Is SHOP a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 114.32 USD and our DCF valuation, Shopify Inc (SHOP) is a sell. Selling SHOP stocks now will result in a potential gain of 62.6%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0% - 9.4%	8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.0% - 5.0%	4.0%
Fair Price	28.82 - 87.09	42.74
Upside	-74.8% - -23.8%	-62.6%

114.32 USD

Stock Price

42.74 USD

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

SHOP DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(USD in millions)		Projections

	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028	12-2029

Revenue	8,880	10,372	11,637	13,487	15,526	17,762
% Growth	26%	17%	12%	16%	15%	14%

Cost of goods sold	(4,408)	(4,891)	(5,214)	(5,740)	(6,277)	(6,822)
% of Revenue	50%	47%	45%	43%	40%	38%

Selling, G&A expenses	(2,018)	(2,357)	(2,645)	(3,065)	(3,528)	(4,036)
% of Revenue	23%	23%	23%	23%	23%	23%

Research & Development	(1,355)	(1,583)	(1,776)	(2,058)	(2,369)	(2,710)
% of Revenue	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%

Net interest & other expenses	1,129	1,319	1,480	1,715	1,974	2,258
% of Revenue	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%	13%

Tax expense	(209)	(268)	(327)	(407)	(500)	(605)
Tax rate	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%

Net profit	2,019	2,591	3,156	3,932	4,825	5,846
% Margin	23%	25%	27%	29%	31%	33%