The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shopify Inc (SHOP) is 42.74 USD. With the latest stock price at 114.32 USD, the upside of Shopify Inc based on DCF is -62.6%.
Based on the latest price of 114.32 USD and our DCF valuation, Shopify Inc (SHOP) is a sell. Selling SHOP stocks now will result in a potential gain of 62.6%.
Range | Selected | |
WACC / Discount Rate | 7.0% - 9.4% | 8.2% |
Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% - 5.0% | 4.0% |
Fair Price | 28.82 - 87.09 | 42.74 |
Upside | -74.8% - -23.8% | -62.6% |
(USD in millions) | Projections | |||||
12-2024 | 12-2025 | 12-2026 | 12-2027 | 12-2028 | 12-2029 | |
Revenue | 8,880 | 10,372 | 11,637 | 13,487 | 15,526 | 17,762 |
% Growth | 26% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 14% |
Cost of goods sold | (4,408) | (4,891) | (5,214) | (5,740) | (6,277) | (6,822) |
% of Revenue | 50% | 47% | 45% | 43% | 40% | 38% |
Selling, G&A expenses | (2,018) | (2,357) | (2,645) | (3,065) | (3,528) | (4,036) |
% of Revenue | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
Research & Development | (1,355) | (1,583) | (1,776) | (2,058) | (2,369) | (2,710) |
% of Revenue | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Net interest & other expenses | 1,129 | 1,319 | 1,480 | 1,715 | 1,974 | 2,258 |
% of Revenue | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
Tax expense | (209) | (268) | (327) | (407) | (500) | (605) |
Tax rate | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Net profit | 2,019 | 2,591 | 3,156 | 3,932 | 4,825 | 5,846 |
% Margin | 23% | 25% | 27% | 29% | 31% | 33% |