SHOP
Shopify Inc
Price:  
114.32 
USD
Volume:  
6,121,205
Canada | IT Services

SHOP DCF Valuation - Growth Exit 5Y

-62.6 %
Upside

What is the DCF valuation of SHOP?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shopify Inc (SHOP) is 42.74 USD. With the latest stock price at 114.32 USD, the upside of Shopify Inc based on DCF is -62.6%.

Is SHOP a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 114.32 USD and our DCF valuation, Shopify Inc (SHOP) is a sell. Selling SHOP stocks now will result in a potential gain of 62.6%.

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate7.0% - 9.4%8.2%
Long-term Growth Rate 3.0% - 5.0%4.0%
Fair Price28.82 - 87.0942.74
Upside-74.8% - -23.8%-62.6%
114.32 USD
Stock Price
42.74 USD
Fair Price
REVENUE & EXPENSES
CAPEX
D&A
WORKING CAPITAL
TERMINAL VALUE

SHOP DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(USD in millions)Projections
12-202412-202512-202612-202712-202812-2029
Revenue8,88010,37211,63713,48715,52617,762
% Growth
26%17%12%16%15%14%
Cost of goods sold(4,408)(4,891)(5,214)(5,740)(6,277)(6,822)
% of Revenue50%47%45%43%40%38%
Selling, G&A expenses(2,018)(2,357)(2,645)(3,065)(3,528)(4,036)
% of Revenue23%23%23%23%23%23%
Research & Development(1,355)(1,583)(1,776)(2,058)(2,369)(2,710)
% of Revenue15%15%15%15%15%15%
Net interest & other expenses1,1291,3191,4801,7151,9742,258
% of Revenue13%13%13%13%13%13%
Tax expense(209)(268)(327)(407)(500)(605)
Tax rate9%9%9%9%9%9%
Net profit2,0192,5913,1563,9324,8255,846
% Margin23%25%27%29%31%33%