The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) is 1,264.48 USD. With the latest stock price at 1,370.71 USD, the upside of Texas Pacific Land Corp based on DCF is -7.8%.

Is TPL a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 1,370.71 USD and our DCF valuation, Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL) is a sell. Selling TPL stocks now will result in a potential gain of 7.8%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	6.1% - 7.4%	6.7%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.0% - 5.0%	4.0%
Fair Price	818.21 - 3,088.38	1,264.48
Upside	-40.3% - 125.3%	-7.8%

1,370.71 USD

Stock Price

1,264.48 USD

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

TPL DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(USD in millions)		Projections

	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028	12-2029

Revenue	706	961	1,108	1,299	1,508	1,657
% Growth	12%	36%	15%	17%	16%	10%

Cost of goods sold	(46)	(60)	(65)	(73)	(80)	(84)
% of Revenue	7%	6%	6%	6%	5%	5%

Selling, G&A expenses	(95)	(130)	(150)	(176)	(204)	(224)
% of Revenue	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Research & Development	0	0	0	0	0	0
% of Revenue	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Net interest & other expenses	15	20	23	27	31	34
% of Revenue	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%

Tax expense	(125)	(171)	(198)	(232)	(271)	(298)
Tax rate	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%

Net profit	454	621	718	845	984	1,085
% Margin	64%	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%