002838.SZ
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd
Price:  
18.42 
CNY
Volume:  
3,364,846
China | Chemicals

002838.SZ DCF Valuation - Growth Exit 5Y

-48.2 %
Upside

What is the DCF valuation of 002838.SZ?

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838.SZ) is 9.53 CNY. With the latest stock price at 18.42 CNY, the upside of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd based on DCF is -48.2%.

Is 002838.SZ a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 18.42 CNY and our DCF valuation, Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838.SZ) is a sell. Selling 002838.SZ stocks now will result in a potential gain of 48.2%.

Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate8.2% - 10.4%9.3%
Long-term Growth Rate 1.0% - 3.0%2.0%
Fair Price6.63 - 14.789.53
Upside-64.0% - -19.8%-48.2%
18.42 CNY
Stock Price
9.53 CNY
Fair Price
REVENUE & EXPENSES
CAPEX
D&A
WORKING CAPITAL
TERMINAL VALUE

002838.SZ DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(CNY in millions)Projections
12-202412-202512-202612-202712-202812-2029
Revenue5,3016,1296,7377,6748,2928,831
% Growth
17%16%10%14%8%7%
Cost of goods sold(4,681)(5,305)(5,714)(6,379)(6,755)(7,050)
% of Revenue88%87%85%83%81%80%
Selling, G&A expenses(165)(190)(209)(238)(258)(274)
% of Revenue3%3%3%3%3%3%
Research & Development(259)(299)(329)(375)(405)(431)
% of Revenue5%5%5%5%5%5%
Net interest & other expenses(36)(41)(46)(52)(56)(60)
% of Revenue1%1%1%1%1%1%
Tax expense(8)(21)(31)(45)(59)(73)
Tax rate5%7%7%7%7%7%
Net profit152272407585760943
% Margin3%4%6%8%9%11%