The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838.SZ) is 9.53 CNY. With the latest stock price at 18.42 CNY, the upside of Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd based on DCF is -48.2%.
Based on the latest price of 18.42 CNY and our DCF valuation, Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838.SZ) is a sell. Selling 002838.SZ stocks now will result in a potential gain of 48.2%.
Range | Selected | |
WACC / Discount Rate | 8.2% - 10.4% | 9.3% |
Long-term Growth Rate | 1.0% - 3.0% | 2.0% |
Fair Price | 6.63 - 14.78 | 9.53 |
Upside | -64.0% - -19.8% | -48.2% |
(CNY in millions) | Projections | |||||
12-2024 | 12-2025 | 12-2026 | 12-2027 | 12-2028 | 12-2029 | |
Revenue | 5,301 | 6,129 | 6,737 | 7,674 | 8,292 | 8,831 |
% Growth | 17% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
Cost of goods sold | (4,681) | (5,305) | (5,714) | (6,379) | (6,755) | (7,050) |
% of Revenue | 88% | 87% | 85% | 83% | 81% | 80% |
Selling, G&A expenses | (165) | (190) | (209) | (238) | (258) | (274) |
% of Revenue | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Research & Development | (259) | (299) | (329) | (375) | (405) | (431) |
% of Revenue | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Net interest & other expenses | (36) | (41) | (46) | (52) | (56) | (60) |
% of Revenue | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Tax expense | (8) | (21) | (31) | (45) | (59) | (73) |
Tax rate | 5% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Net profit | 152 | 272 | 407 | 585 | 760 | 943 |
% Margin | 3% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 11% |