The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial Group Co Ltd (600785.SS) is 8.07 CNY. With the latest stock price at 11.99 CNY, the upside of Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial Group Co Ltd based on DCF is -32.7%.

Is 600785.SS a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 11.99 CNY and our DCF valuation, Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial Group Co Ltd (600785.SS) is a sell. Selling 600785.SS stocks now will result in a potential gain of 32.7%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	6.5% - 7.4%	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	1.0% - 3.0%	2.0%
Fair Price	3.71 - 15.92	8.07
Upside	-69.0% - 32.8%	-32.7%

11.99 CNY

Stock Price

8.07 CNY

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

600785.SS DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Projections

	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028	12-2029

Revenue	6,116	6,563	6,733	7,121	7,479	7,641
% Growth	1%	7%	3%	6%	5%	2%

Cost of goods sold	(4,494)	(4,822)	(4,947)	(5,232)	(5,495)	(5,615)
% of Revenue	73%	73%	73%	73%	73%	73%

Selling, G&A expenses	(989)	(1,061)	(1,088)	(1,151)	(1,209)	(1,235)
% of Revenue	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%	16%

Research & Development	0	0	0	0	0	0
% of Revenue	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Net interest & other expenses	(486)	(522)	(535)	(566)	(594)	(607)
% of Revenue	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%

Tax expense	(38)	(41)	(42)	(44)	(46)	(47)
Tax rate	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%	26%

Net profit	110	118	121	128	134	137
% Margin	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%