The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Weilong Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779.SS) is 2.60 CNY. With the latest stock price at 7.54 CNY, the upside of Weilong Grape Wine Co Ltd based on DCF is -65.5%.
Based on the latest price of 7.54 CNY and our DCF valuation, Weilong Grape Wine Co Ltd (603779.SS) is a sell. Selling 603779.SS stocks now will result in a potential gain of 65.5%.
Range | Selected | |
WACC / Discount Rate | 7.7% - 10.2% | 9.0% |
Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% - 5.0% | 4.0% |
Fair Price | 1.7 - 5.02 | 2.60 |
Upside | -77.4% - -33.4% | -65.5% |
(CNY in millions) | Projections | |||||
12-2024 | 12-2025 | 12-2026 | 12-2027 | 12-2028 | 12-2029 | |
Revenue | 445 | 332 | 355 | 366 | 380 | 404 |
% Growth | 16% | -26% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
Cost of goods sold | (231) | (163) | (166) | (163) | (160) | (162) |
% of Revenue | 52% | 49% | 47% | 44% | 42% | 40% |
Selling, G&A expenses | (152) | (113) | (121) | (125) | (130) | (138) |
% of Revenue | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
Research & Development | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
% of Revenue | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Net interest & other expenses | (41) | (30) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (37) |
% of Revenue | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
Tax expense | (9) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (8) |
Tax rate | 47% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
Net profit | 10 | 20 | 29 | 38 | 46 | 57 |
% Margin | 2% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% |