The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co (002538.SZ) is 5.41 CNY. With the latest stock price at 5.07 CNY, the upside of Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co based on DCF is 6.7%.

Is 002538.SZ a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 5.07 CNY and our DCF valuation, Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd Co (002538.SZ) is a buy. Buying 002538.SZ stocks now will result in a potential gain of 6.7%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	7.5% - 9.8%	8.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	1.0% - 3.0%	2.0%
Fair Price	4.26 - 7.66	5.41
Upside	-16.0% - 51.1%	6.7%

5.07 CNY

Stock Price

5.41 CNY

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

002538.SZ DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Projections

	12-2023	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028

Revenue	3,913	3,889	3,992	4,072	4,181	4,296
% Growth	20%	-1%	3%	2%	3%	3%

Cost of goods sold	(3,348)	(3,260)	(3,280)	(3,278)	(3,299)	(3,322)
% of Revenue	86%	84%	82%	81%	79%	77%

Selling, G&A expenses	(304)	(302)	(310)	(316)	(325)	(334)
% of Revenue	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%	8%

Research & Development	(102)	(101)	(104)	(106)	(109)	(112)
% of Revenue	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%	3%

Net interest & other expenses	8	8	8	8	8	8
% of Revenue	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Tax expense	(46)	(39)	(52)	(64)	(77)	(91)
Tax rate	27%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%

Net profit	122	194	254	315	380	446
% Margin	3%	5%	6%	8%	9%	10%