The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation of Shenzhen Riland Industry Co Ltd (300154.SZ) is 3.28 CNY. With the latest stock price at 8.94 CNY, the upside of Shenzhen Riland Industry Co Ltd based on DCF is -63.3%.

Is 300154.SZ a buy or a sell?

Based on the latest price of 8.94 CNY and our DCF valuation, Shenzhen Riland Industry Co Ltd (300154.SZ) is a sell. Selling 300154.SZ stocks now will result in a potential gain of 63.3%.

	Range	Selected
WACC / Discount Rate	8.4% - 11.8%	10.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.0% - 5.0%	4.0%
Fair Price	2.26 - 5.92	3.28
Upside	-74.7% - -33.8%	-63.3%

8.94 CNY

Stock Price

3.28 CNY

Fair Price

REVENUE & EXPENSES

CAPEX

D&A

WORKING CAPITAL

TERMINAL VALUE

300154.SZ DCF Valuation: Revenue & Expenses Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Projections

	12-2024	12-2025	12-2026	12-2027	12-2028	12-2029

Revenue	1,015	851	899	944	1,013	1,034
% Growth	12%	-16%	6%	5%	7%	2%

Cost of goods sold	(814)	(648)	(650)	(649)	(662)	(641)
% of Revenue	80%	76%	72%	69%	65%	62%

Selling, G&A expenses	(124)	(104)	(110)	(115)	(124)	(126)
% of Revenue	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%	12%

Research & Development	(36)	(30)	(32)	(34)	(36)	(37)
% of Revenue	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%	4%

Net interest & other expenses	146	122	129	136	146	149
% of Revenue	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%

Tax expense	(39)	(35)	(43)	(51)	(61)	(68)
Tax rate	21%	18%	18%	18%	18%	18%

Net profit	148	156	193	231	276	310
% Margin	15%	18%	22%	24%	27%	30%